This video features a discussion with Jordy Visser, a 30-year Wall Street veteran, about the current state of Bitcoin, AI Boom- artificial intelligence, and the macroeconomy.
Here are the highlights of the conversation:
The conversation concludes with the idea that the world will look “very different” in the 2030s due to the merging of hardware, software, and humans, driven by the current administration’s focus on accelerating the hardware transition.
Interest Rate Cuts and the Job Market
The discussion begins with the recent jobs revision data, which showed a significant downward revision in jobs created for May and June. This suggests that the job data may not be reliable and could lead Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, potentially boosting asset prices.
Visser notes that while jobless claims are low, there has been a hiring freeze, and job creation has primarily been in government-subsidized areas like leisure and healthcare services.
The probability of a Fed rate cut has increased significantly, with the market now building in a cut. Visser believes a cut into an accelerating economy (indicated by rising PMIs) would be very positive for “beta assets”.
He argues that cutting rates while GDP is growing at 3% could lead to even higher growth, potentially 4% or 5% AI Boom.
AI’s Impact on Earnings and the Economy
Visser highlights the staggering earnings beats from major tech companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, Apple, and Microsoft, which collectively beat revenue forecasts by $18 billion. This is seen as an indication of how massively the AI trade is distorting everything else.
He emphasizes that this is not speculation but rather a result of efficiency gains and cloud growth driven by AI adoption.
The buildout of data centers and power plants due to AI is expected to drive PMIs higher and potentially lead to increased inflation.
The concept of “code learning from code” is discussed as a major driver of exponential productivity and profit margins for businesses. This means companies can effectively “hire millions of employees for close to zero”.
The rapid growth and high valuations of private AI companies like XAI, Anthropic, and OpenAI are also mentioned, underscoring the “violent and big” nature of the AI movement.
Bitcoin and the Future of Finance
MicroStrategy’s historic earnings beat, largely due to Bitcoin’s price increase, is discussed, with Visser expressing continued belief in the company due to its first-mover advantage in Bitcoin.
He believes that the world will become more decentralized with AI agents transacting, leading to a shift in volume from individuals to computers and an exponential growth in stablecoins.
Visser sees Bitcoin as the only asset with a proven “moat” in a future where traditional business moats may disappear due to rapid disruption.
The increasing government support for crypto, particularly stablecoins, is highlighted, with the SEC and White House actively working to modernize financial markets and promote dollar domination through stablecoins.
The global push for stablecoins, even from central banks like the ECB, is noted as countries aim to avoid being overwhelmed by the dollar.
Visser concludes that the combination of the AI push and government support for crypto, especially stablecoins, will lead to massive network effects for the crypto space.
The Future of Monetary Policy and Humanoids
The possibility of automating the Federal Reserve with AI is explored, with Visser suggesting that AI could make better, unbiased decisions for monetary policy.
The emergence of AI-generated music charting and humanoid robots performing tasks like laundry are presented as examples of AI’s accelerating impact on various industries and daily life.
The discussion touches on the “embodied AI” trend, including drone deliveries and robo-taxis, as precursors to widespread humanoid adoption.
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